BAMCEF UNIFICATION CONFERENCE 7

Published on 10 Mar 2013 ALL INDIA BAMCEF UNIFICATION CONFERENCE HELD AT Dr.B. R. AMBEDKAR BHAVAN,DADAR,MUMBAI ON 2ND AND 3RD MARCH 2013. Mr.PALASH BISWAS (JOURNALIST -KOLKATA) DELIVERING HER SPEECH. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLL-n6MrcoM http://youtu.be/oLL-n6MrcoM

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Saturday, August 6, 2011

ECONOMY: ILLEGAL MINING The Wanton Sins Of The Soil Bellary is only the tip of the rotting earthmound. Can a new proposed legislation clear the air? LOLA NAYAR

KPN
Mining operations in Bellary
ECONOMY: ILLEGAL MINING
The Wanton Sins Of The Soil
Bellary is only the tip of the rotting earthmound. Can a new proposed legislation clear the air?


Two years ago, when the ministry of mines decided to use satellite imaging to survey projects, it unearthed several "unusual activities" across the country. "The amount of mining done and material being exported didn't match in areas where certain companies had been given licences," recounts a former senior bureaucrat with the mines ministry. Declining to identify the firms, the official adds, "More worrying was the satellite data showing that mining was being done deep in the forest where no one had been given permission."

As a nation digests the scale of illegal mining in Karnataka's Bellary district—where the Supreme Court (SC) stepped in last month to cease all operations—what is scarier is that Bellary is just a microcosm of a whole industry in a shambolic state. A mammoth $35 billion in size, the mining sector has taken off in the past five years, fuelled by a real estate boom, rising prices of commodities and the ever-growing demand for raw materials from China. It has also become the prime metaphor for crony capitalism and all that is viewed to be wrong with how India's economy is being governed.

There is an expanding list of small and large companies engaged in mining all of 84 resources in the country. And the stink raised by recent disclosures has left a vapour trail all the way to the top. Lokayukta Santosh Hegde's report on Bellary levelled serious corruption charges against leading steelmaker JSW and top trading company Adani Enterprises. (Both companies duly denied the charges.) The public reaction has not been one of surprise. For, over 1.8 lakh illegal mining cases were registered in the span of five years. But when it comes to punitive action, political collusion has continued to be a major impediment.

 
 
"Mining is the biggest cash cow and Goa is far worse than Bellary. Our study of 90 mines finds each violate all norms."Claude Alvares, Environmentalist
 
 
Take the regulatory body Indian Bureau of Mines (IBM), which launched a special drive in 2009-10 to clamp down on irregularities. Instead of initiating prosecutions, IBM was asked to issue orders suspending mining operations. Though handicapped by a paucity of staff, IBM has been making some ripples, albeit small ones, with as many as 163 licences being suspended in the past two years (a stark contrast from none in the previous two years). For better impact, "we do not revoke the suspension till the violation is rectified, which takes time", official IBM sources stated.

However, environmentalists and locals in mining areas allege that too little is being done. Despite several states having safeguards—remote-sensing, control on traffic, market intelligence, end-user registration and special monitoring cells—industry players have found it easy to dodge surveillance. That's the backdrop to the introduction of the new draft legislation, the Mines and Mineral (Development and Regulation) or MMDR bill, which is awaiting cabinet approval.

The major problem is the system of leasing mines, which bends easily to manipulation done for reasons of political patronage (as is well illustrated by the case of former Jharkhand chief minister Madhu Koda). This is one area that the bill is intended to clean up through clear guidelines for the auctioning and allocation of Large Area Prospecting Licences (LAPLS). It also holds the promise of addressing the overlap and conflict between central and state government roles, through a stronger regulator.

Despite the bill's forward-looking provisions, which includes an attempt to address conflicts arising from mining-related displacement, the catch will lie in execution, where state governments have unflattering track records. It is not just major minerals like iron ore, bauxite and manganese that are being illegally mined and exported. It's rampant even with relatively minor resources like riverbed sand and building materials, which has ravaged ecosystems as in the case of the Aravallis. Last year, the apex court constituted a one-man commission under retired Justice M.B. Shah to look into the issue.

"Illegally mined ore being exported is a major issue," says S. Vijay Kumar, secretary, mines (see interview). Besides the economic cost to the government through loss of revenue, the socio-economic cost arising from irresponsible mining practices is unquantifiable. "The Bellary variety of violations are evident across the country as our mining governance—whether it be environmental or purely economic—is failing," says Chandra Bhushan of the Centre for Science and Environment.

With state authorities often turning a blind eye and the regulatory mechanism lacking either the will or the capability to check violations, large areas of forestland, agriculture and grazing land are being affected. According to a study by Dr Walter Fernandes of the Guwahati-based North Eastern Social Research Centre, around 20 lakh people have been displaced by mining in India and more than half (mostly tribals) have not been resettled.

 
 
"We have the laws but the governance is poor. Getting industry status and adopting modern technology is the cure."Tuhin Mukherjee, FICCI Mining Comm.
 
 
Sandeep Pattnaik of the National Centre for Advocacy Studies notes that in the three mineral-rich states of Orissa, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh alone, over 1,00,000 hectares of forestland have been diverted to mining and industrial projects. Citing the case of the Joda-Barbil iron ore-rich region of Orissa, Pattnaik says the claims of rehabilitation and resettlement ring hollow. "The reforestation and reclamation of land is a complete failure, there has hardly been any employment generation, education and medical facilities are non-existent and infrastructure remains poor."

The scenarios in other states are no better. The SC has provided some safeguards through its Samatha Judgement (1997), banning the leasing of tribal areas in Andhra Pradesh for mining to non-tribals. This saw several other states notify scheduled areas. The central government's moves to get the SC to review its decision have so far failed—a blessing.

The thing is, mining is necessary and just can't be wished away. Stressing that India needs to raise the share of mining in its GDP from the present 2.3 per cent, Tuhin Mukherjee, MD of Essel Mining, feels that only the conferral of industry status and the adoption of modern technology can resolve most of the issues. "We have the laws but governance is poor," says Mukherjee, who is also chairman of the FICCI mining committee.

Voicing concerns about the new draft bill, Hiranyava Bhadra, partner, KPMG, worries that there is a lack of clarity about the regulator, which may affect investment sentiments. Citing the example of Rio Tinto's diamond mining project in Madhya Pradesh, Bhadra says it is wrong to paint all mining enterprises as unscrupulous. As India moves to balance the demands of economic development with social equity, mining activities need to be better supervised. And urgently.

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INTERVIEW
Admitting to there being several other hot spots beside Bellary, the mines secretary says that attempts are on to book violators:
OUTLOOK
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DAILY MAIL
AUG 06, 2011 01:17 PM
1

We can take it for granted that these scoundrels will never see jail.

Such is the plight of our trust in the justice system!

EVEN IF the media screams about it, the judiciary is dead and no justice is done in this country.

MALE UNBLOCKED
CHENNAI, INDIA
AUG 06, 2011 07:23 PM
2

Drive mining into the shadows and it will create its monsters. Let the Centre and the state governments earn their revenue through transparent auctions of prospecting rights, royalties, export duties, income tax. Balancing environmental concerns with the need for economic development is not singular to mining but issues relating to forests and tribals need to be addressed with sensitivity. Matching supply to demand need not create a Bellary.

ASHOK LAL
MUMBAI, INDIA
AUG 06, 2011 07:32 PM
3

Leave aside the big mining projects, the small licenses like river bed sand and stone queries became the gold mine in the absence of well defined regulations and poor execution. The licenses of river bed mining and stone queries in northern states like U.P, M.P and Rajasthan are issued to politician or their muscle men. One political family control almost all the mining activities in Bundelkhand region, the rules were changed thrice in mining Department in U.P for the benefit of a particular company. Mining became the source of political funding in most of the state. It is right that Bellary is the tip Rajasthan are issued to politician or their muscle men. One political family control almost all the mining activities in Bundelkhand region, the rules were changed thrice in mining Department in U.P for the benefit of a particular company. Mining became the source of political funding in most of the state. It is right that Bellary is the tip of the rotting earthmound.The poor sensitivity of public to the environmental issues and limited access of inhabitants of mineral rich area to our political system are additional factor of this exploitation.

SUDHIR PANWAR
LUCKNOW, INDIA
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POLITICS: THE SOUTH Tropic Of Caprices Politicians let down Karnataka, Andhra and Tamil Nadu. Kerala is a victim of its own social pathologies. SUGATA SRINIVASARAJU , PUSHPA IYENGAR , MADHAVI TATA

K. RAVI/KANNADA PRABHA
A Map Of Woes...
A change of guard in Karnataka
  • According to a study, in 2005-10 national GDP grew at 8.7%. The combined growth rate of the four southern states was 7.85%.
  • In the last three years, even Bihar and Uttarakhand grew at 16% and 14% respectively
  • Karnataka dragged down by corrupt, irresponsible politicians
  • Electoral corruption, freebies by successive regimes, power crisis have left Tamil Nadu in a crisis
  • Telangana stir troubles AP
  • Alcoholism rampant in Kerala

***

There has been many a stereotype in the media on what distinguishes the southern states from the rest of India. For decades after Independence, they were loosely defined on racial, ethnic and linguistic lines. Only recently have the dissimilarities between the regions been accentuated through the idiom of development. The south has been seen as progressive, modern, with high literacy rates and positive social indices; in fact, as an understated success. The emergence of Bangalore and Hyderabad as IT and new enterprise hubs has also contributed to the way the southern states are perceived now.

Despite all this, in the last couple of years, the image of the four southern states seems to have taken a serious beating—especially in this season of national ignominy and scams, when every major revelation seems to have some southern connection. It may be an exaggeration to say the four big states are on the decline, but certainly, after years of upward surge, the graph seems to have hit a plateau.

Sample this data from the CII-commissioned McKinsey report of March 2011. In 2005-10, when the national GDP grew at 8.7 per cent, the combined growth rate of the four southern states was 7.85 per cent. Karnataka led with 8.7 per cent. Kerala was 8.1 per cent, and Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu were 7.4 per cent each. North Indian states like Bihar and Uttarakhand, long dubbed 'bimaru', had overtaken the southern states. In the last three years the two states grew at 16 per cent and 14 per cent respectively. Other states ahead of the south are Gujarat (11.3 per cent) and Haryana (11 per cent).

Not only has there been some levelling in terms of economy, but also in terms of political culture in the southern states. The recent revolt of B.S. Yediyurappa and his nonchalant attitude to corruption, casteism and nepotism stand out. This is being compared in the local press to the 'UP-Bihar phenomenon', itself a stereotype. Earlier too, chief ministers S. Nijalingappa, Devaraj Urs and Veerendra Patil had challenged their party high command, but it was on a matter of principle. This time around, Yediyurappa was perceived as "blackmailing" the BJP high command to retain power, flaunting his "ill-earned money" and dominant Lingayat community affiliation.

The circus, which went on for a week, saw Yediyurappa backing D.V. Sadananda Gowda, a Vokkaliga, to succeed him and ensuring his victory against Jagdish Shettar, who was the BJP's official nominee. Shettar, a fellow Lingayat, is also said to have had L.K. Advani's backing. This implies that his defeat has acquired larger connotations within the party. bsy not only defied the party's deadline to resign on July 28, but even on the day he resigned (July 31), at the very last minute, he insisted his resignation would only follow the declaration of his nominee as the next chief minister. However, when that didn't happen, he successfully set up a contest and defeated Shettar by seven votes on August 3. As expected, the 55 legislators who stood by Shettar are threatening not to cooperate with the new chief minister.

Yediyurappa may have won a tactical victory for himself, but the party has lost. It would indeed be a tough task for the new chief minister to escape the shadow and debt of Yediyurappa. With many corruption cases coming up against Yediyurappa, the new chief minister will have a tough balancing act to do. Gowda is an MP from Udupi-Chikmagalur and is dependent on Yediyurappa for his election to the assembly within six months. But, Yediyurappa's statement that he will return to the gaddi in six months has only created more uncertainty.

If one has watched Yediyurappa closely from 2008, all this would not come as a surprise. He began his tenure by poaching Opposition MLAs and then spending monumental sums at the bypolls to get them elected. In fact, the 2008 victory of the BJP in Karnataka was itself attributed to a lavish spending of illegal mining money from Bellary.

Yediyurappa, besides indulging in corruption, also brazenly mainstreamed superstition, as well as pontiffs and caste seminaries. For a state that had always maintained a socialist leaning, this came as a huge shock. Even in his budget for 2010-11, he continued with his practice of extending state patronage to various caste and quasi-religious organisations.

Rajeev Chandrashekar, an entrepreneur and Rajya Sabha MP, says: "Some of the best administrators have emerged from the south and the earliest examples of political leadership excelling in governance and reforms were also from the south. E.M.S. Namboodiripad, Devaraj Urs, S. Nijalingappa, Veerendra Patil and other leaders were and are shining examples of public service and politics mingling seamlessly. Somehow and somewhere in the mists of recent history, politics and governance in these four states has morphed into a form far removed from what our founding fathers envisioned and what conventional wisdom wouldn't associate with the south."


The Telangana agitation

The story in Tamil Nadu, where the DMK has been the very epicentre of controversy, is not different. When the AIADMK won by a landslide in May, former IAS officer M.G. Devasahayam said: "Tamils have redeemed their honour and contradicted the feeling that they were a purchasable commodity." The state's reputation for cash-for-votes had the Election Commission keeping close watch and seizing almost `50 crore in cash during the May assembly elections. Interestingly, Transparency International has ranked Tamil Nadu the second most corrupt state in India.

Development has always been high on the agenda in Tamil Nadu. But the flip side is that "development has given more scope for corruption," says political analyst Gnani. Also, the state faces a major power crisis. It produces 7,000 MW but needs 12,000 MW. Freebies have bankrupted the state. The Supreme Court is hearing a plea questioning the distribution of free colour TVs by the DMK regime. J. Jayalalitha, the present chief minister, has promised free mixies, grinders and laptops.

Social anthropologist A.R. Vasavi says, "Instead of consolidating the gains of social mobilisation and development of the previous decades, the south is now manifesting a complex constellation of trends. These include populist politics, in which mass welfare is not instituted through formal mechanisms but sought to be distributed as personal or party largesse. Market fundamentalism has meant a close alliance of industry and state. The new, unimagined and largely unaccounted capital outflow has become the bases for electoral gains."

If corruption has plagued Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, political instability in the last couple of years has paralysed Andhra Pradesh. Plus, Karnataka's mining-related corruption has seen reverberations in Andhra too. Academic and writer Dr Venu Madhav Govindu says, "While Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh share a contiguous region marked by linguistic and cultural affinity, today the politics of the two states is unfortunately conjoined by the geological continuity of mineral wealth running under and across the state border."


Bad days M.K. Stalin, former TN deputy CM, being detained in Tiruvavur district

However, it is the ongoing agitation for a separate state of Telangana that has grabbed the headlines. In the latest round of protests, around 100 MLAs and 15 MPs have put in their papers. The government is virtually in a limbo. Thirteen ministers from Telangana who have resigned do not enter the secretariat. The Centre's promise in December 2009 to carve a separate state has permanently altered the socio-political dynamics of Andhra Pradesh. The commercially well-to-do state capital of Hyderabad has become a bone of contention. There is a flight of capital to other states. Political scientist Jyotirmaya Sharma says, "In the formation of a state, nobody should be afraid of living anywhere. Politicians should not make citizens feel insecure. I'm neither Andhra, nor Rayalaseema nor Telangana. I'm a Hyderabadi."

A common thread that binds the southern states is large-scale corruption. This is partly because of the changed political economy. Andhra Pradesh is witnessing the CBI probe the disproportionate assets of Y.S. Jaganmohan Reddy, the Kadapa MP and son of late chief minister Y.S Rajasekhara Reddy. Dr Govindu says, "While we rightly berate politicians for their mendacity, we must recognise that it is the nature of the newly formed urban economy of south India that makes it possible for them to indulge in corruption."

Does this mean the south is a victim of its own development?


By Sugata Srinivasaraju in Bangalore, Madhavi Tata in Hyderabad, Pushpa Iyengar in Chennai

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POLITICS: THE SOUTH
Kerala is roiled by alcoholism, divorce, debt and suicide despite its high human development indices
MINU ITTYIPE
ESSAY
The flight of Big Little Governance Ideas northwards has ceased
N.S. MADHAVAN
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DAILY MAIL
AUG 06, 2011 07:35 PM
6

An  attempt has been made in this article to highlight the some interesting  features of the politics and economies of the  four major southern states of AP,Karnataka,TN and Kerala  during the Five Year period, 2005-2010.

During this period, while the Growth Rate of National GDP was 8.7%  the combined growth rate of these four Southern states was lower at 7.85% . The growth rates registered by some  select states were the following : Gujarat : 11.3%; Haryana :11.0%; Karnataka : 8.7%; Kerala :8.1%; AP and TN : 7.4% . Bihar and Uttarakhand registered growth rates of 16% and 14% during a shorter,three-year period ending with 2010. So the main hypothesis  drawn up is perhaps, that the four southern states are either on the decline or their economies are levelling off.

On the basis of the data given, the hypothesis appears to be logically consistent. My hesitation,however,  to endorse this hypothesis is based on the following reasons :

(i)  GDP growth rates per se may not be the sufficient indicators of the "Directions" in which the State  economies have been moving in recent past. I suggest that if the other relevant factors are taken into account, the Southern states are still in the right course and stand way ahead of some of the Northern/ BIMARU states .

(ii) As for the combined growth rate of Southern States being much lower than some of the Northern states, this is not surprising .After all the economy of a historically  misgoverned state like Bihar had to start from the scratch. Hence, under the stewardship of  a dynamic CM, the state had  registered a high growth rate. Nothing surprising in Bihar's high GDP growth rate of 16% during the last three years.

(iii)  In terms of Levels of Literacy,Growth of  higher/ technical education, other Infrastructural developments, Demographic specificities, Growth of entrepreneurial classes skill endowments of the workers etc the Sothern states are now way ahead of many states in India. Hence, 'Other Things Being Equal '--if the political crises now beseiging some Southern States are  resolved-- the South can still surge forward as it did before.

I endorse the view that " Development has always been high on the agenda of Tamil Nadu. But the flip side is that  developemnt has given more scope for corruption".

 On the eve of Independence, the Tamil region of Madras state was way ahead of the other southern states. Less corrupt and more efficient bureacracy was an added boon to Madras state. This trend continued even in the post -Independence period.

The article suggests :  

" A common thread that binds the southern states is large scale corruption ".

Perhaps Kerala is different from the other three Southern states in some respects. It stands apart from AP,TN and Karnataka in terms of having LOWER levels of corruption and  HIGHER SCORE  on Development Indicators in access to food,education and health. After all, Kerala is unique in many respects--society,polity,culture and economy.

Is there an organic link between levels of corruption and growth rates  of the economies ? Apparently so. For compare the rapid growth that some Sothern states registered during the last 20 years of Liberalised economy and the enormity of corruption scandals that involve politicians and bureacrats  in TN, Karnataka and AP.

The article rightly concludes with the view :

".....(I)t is the nature of the newly formed urban economy of South India that makes it possible for them  (politicians) to indulge in corruption".

The real estate boom in the Sothern Metro and smaller cities has given enormous scope for the politicians--big and small, bureacrats, land brokers/usurpers and other  anti-social elements to raise their  hoods . For instance, the corporate honchos  with the cunnivance of these creatures usurped agricultural lands and brought havoc in the lives of the poor peasants in Metro/City suburbs and Coastal region  of Andhra Pradesh .

  

G. NIRANJAN RAO
HYDERABAD, ANDHRA PRADESH, INDIA
AUG 06, 2011 07:01 PM
5

Is this an article? Appears to be a work of novice or apprentice at a journalism shop.

Phew.....journalism is not a respectable career (in India) at this moment.

INDIAN DESI
HYDERABAD, INDIA
AUG 06, 2011 06:11 PM
4

"The reason of maximum sinners in South is the concentration of Temples and Deities in that part of the country due to which they get Amnesty much easier than others in other parts of the country."

RAJNEESH BATRA
NEW DELHI, INDIA
AUG 06, 2011 03:49 PM
3

However, when that didn't happen, he successfully set up a contest and defeated Shettar by seven votes on August 3. As expected, the 55 legislators who stood by Shettar are threatening not to cooperate with the new chief minister.

Yeddyurappa's man won a majority in the BJP legislature party. This has been called :

a tactical victory for himself (Yeddy), but the party has lost

Will someone please explain how the system would have run more smoothly if Mr Shettar had been installed with a majority of legislators ranged against him.

BONITA
CHENNAI, INDIA
AUG 06, 2011 02:48 PM
2

 
Dear Sir, Do you want to know how corruption is destroying common man in India then read this ugly truth which even media is not telling you.how because of loot and corruption lacks of middle class people are suffering. Nobody is telling the complete and most basic truth. Why land was acquired and given to builders. Reason is humongous amount of corruption. Greater noida authority paid the farmers Rs 7 lack per acre and sold to the builders at 75 lack per acre. each and every builders paid Rs one Crore per acre to CM Mayawati directly. By this account Chief Minister Mayawati collected approximately 8000-10000 crore in bribe. Where else in the world you can bleed your own countrymen in thousands cuts and yet carry on in the name of dalit CM.

NITIN
MEERUT, INDIA
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POLITICS: THE SOUTH
Tropic Of Caprices
Politicians let down Karnataka, Andhra and Tamil Nadu. Kerala is a victim of its own social pathologies.



A STALLED ARAB SPRING A Stalled Arab Spring While the gains made in Tunisia and Egypt remain to be consolidated, the democracy wave has hit barriers in Syria and Yemen; civil war in Libya remains stalemated. DILIP HIRO


A STALLED ARAB SPRING
A Stalled Arab Spring
While the gains made in Tunisia and Egypt remain to be consolidated, the democracy wave has hit barriers in Syria and Yemen; civil war in Libya remains stalemated.

As scorching summer bakes the Middle East and North Africa, the promise of the Arab Spring is wilting. While street protests continue and battles on three frontlines rage in Libya, the old order shows only bearable fissures. The hope of a clean sweep of democratic revolution toppling authoritarian regimes is receding, as an increasing number of Egyptian protesters wonder if they weren't hapless pawns in the soft coup that the Supreme Council of the Armed Force (SCAF) carried out against President Hosni Mubarak. The past six months show that regime change doesn't mean revolution.

Regime change is only a first step towards replacing the foundations that supported the previous regime. How soon and how radically these foundations are altered depends on the strength and clarity of the leaders of the revolutionary movement, often consisting of disparate elements that coalesce to achieve the shared goal of changing the status quo.

When the flight of the authoritarian Tunisian President Zine al Abidine Ben Ali after a mere four weeks of peaceful protest triggered a mass uprising against his Egyptian counterpart, Mubarak, the world was electrified. Hopes arose in Western capitals that the wave of popular demand for democracy would sweep the region. Yet, while the gains made in Tunisia and Egypt remain to be consolidated, the democracy wave has hit barriers in Syria and Yemen; civil war in Libya remains stalemated.

What constituted a radical break in the region's recent history was the loss of citizens' fear of the security forces, achieved by assembling large numbers in vast squares. Friday prayers continue to provide opportunity for staging massive demonstrations. No Arab government dares to ban the communal Friday prayer enjoined for Muslim men by the Koran.

The seminal event of self-immolation by Muhammad Bouazizi, the unemployed computer science graduate in the Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid, occurred on Friday, 17 December 2010, drawing more attention than it would have done on any other day of the week. On a Friday four weeks later, skirmishes between protestors, pouring out of mosques after the weekly prayers, and security forces became so bloody that Ben Ali was forced to flee.

In Egypt the protesting crowds grew exponentially on 28 January, a Friday, with the opposition leaders declaring the following Friday the "Day of Departure" for Mubarak. He stepped down a week later. Fiery sermonizing after Friday prayers by the preacher at the main mosque of the Syrian city of Deraa triggered street protests there, which then spread elsewhere.

By deploying the newest tools of Facebook and Twitter, the disparate, atomized opposition could stage large anti-regime demonstrations. Use of social media continues on varying scales in Yemen, Egypt and Syria. The internet is by now such an integral part of business and industry in the region that no government can afford to close it down for too long.

But this instrument is proving to be double-edged. Witness, for instance, the emergence of the Syrian Electronic Army, disabling opposition websites and hacking into Facebook pages of dissidents. After the much publicized July visit to the dissident city of Hama by US Ambassador to Syria Robert Ford, the electronic army hacked into the US embassy's Facebook page and posted pro-government slogans.

This is one reason why the regime of President Bashar Assad has withstood four-month-long pressure from the street. The key reason, however, is the continuing loyalty of the military high command to Assad based on their common affiliation to the Alawite Shiite sect. By lifting emergency rule and allowing demonstrations cleared by the authorities in advance, the regime has enabled its backers to argue that Assad is a reformer. Many Syrians also fear that if their country were to adopt the sort of democracy the US brought to Iraq, Syria, too, would descend into a debilitating inter-sectarian civil war.

The defection of senior generals in Tunisia and Egypt brought about the downfall of their presidents. Where the armed forces high command is divided, as in Yemen, a stalemate has resulted between the camps favoring and opposing President Ali Abdullah Saleh, recovering in a Saudi hospital from injuries sustained in an attack on his palace in Sanaa.

Though freedom of assembly was won by the sacrifices made by the opposition, it has lost the monopoly it enjoyed initially. Emulating their rivals, regime supporters in Syria and Yemen also have taken to the streets.

Even in Egypt, where revolution is supposed to have triumphed, pro-democracy activists are now realizing it was naïve to accept at face value the commitment to social justice, civil liberties and democracy from SCAF, headed by Field Marshal Mohammed Hussein Tantawi, Mubarak's defense minister for 20 years.

The SCAF's declaration seemed to be directed as much at placating the United States, an annual source of more than $2 billion and advanced weaponry, as the demonstrators in Cairo's Tahrir Square. It also pacified the growing minority among its ranks that was critical of Hosni Mubarak's plan to pass on power to his son.

Little wonder that the SCAF is resisting pressure to put on trial those civilian and military officials of Mubarak's regime accused of corruption and killing of peaceful protestors.

After five eventful months it is dawning upon the leaders of the Tahrir Square sit-in that the SCAF has a vested interest in preserving as much of the political-economic structure of the Mubarak era as it can. Under the tutelage of Field Marshall President Anwar Sadat and Mubarak, the military acquired farms, factories and hotels. Estimates of its assets vary from 10 to 30 percent of the economy.

Those who have taken to the streets in Cairo are rightly targeting the SCAF. During a recent march on the defense ministry, protesters were assaulted by pro-SCAF thugs wielding knives, swords and Molotov cocktails. On 1 August, the SCAF promulgated a decree banning protests. Army troops fired in the air to disperse the three-week long sit-in by peaceful protestors.

The de facto freedom of association in Egypt has led to a mushrooming of political factions, enlarging the SCAF's area of maneuver. SCAF has the power to set the agenda and play one group of politicians against another.

The young, secular initiators of the street protest are now realizing the vast gap that exists between their success in assembling crowds and establishing political parties, grounded into a practical ideology, with a nationwide network. To their dismay, they find that they cannot match the Muslim Brotherhood. Established in 1928, it has continued to maintain deep roots in society despite long periods of repression.

Those who raise the prospect of an alliance between the Brotherhood and the SCAF are overlooking the fact that it was the military in Algeria that brutally crushed the Islamic Salvation Front after it won four-fifths of the parliamentary seats in the first round in December 1991. Aware of the subsequent decade-long bloody chapter in the Algerian history, Brotherhood leaders have decided to contest less than 50 percent of the parliamentary seats if and when elections are held.

The final test of a democratic system is the subservience of the military to the elected civilian authority. Politicians of all hues face a long struggle ahead to achieve that goal.

Revolutionaries are discovering that overthrowing dictators was perhaps the easiest part of a long struggle.


Dilip Hiro is the author of The Essential Middle East: A Comprehensive Guide. His latest book is After the Empire: The Birth of a Multipolar World (Nation Books, New York and London). Rights:Copyright © 2011 Yale Center for the Study of Globalization. YaleGlobal Online

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